Canada-China Trade: The Tariff Effect

Monthly exports to China, Jan 2024 – Oct 2025

Tariffed Products (canola, peas)
Non-Tariffed Products
Mar 2025: 100% tariff (oil/meal/peas) Aug 2025: +75.8% anti-dumping (seed) Jan 2026: Carney-Xi relief
Key finding: Tariffed products (canola, peas) collapsed after March 2025, while non-tariffed exports remained stable. By August 2025, tariffed exports were down 52% year-over-year while non-tariffed products grew 15% — a gap of 67 percentage points.
-52%
Tariffed Products (YoY)
+15%
Non-Tariffed (YoY)
67pp
Performance Gap

Source: Statistics Canada / ISED Trade Data Online. Tariffed products = canola (HS 1205/1514/2306), pulses (0710/0713), pork (0203/0206), seafood (03xx/1605).